RESEARCH & THOUGHT PIECES FROM OUR TEAM

Despite doling out nearly $1 trillion in stimulus payments during the pandemic, government aid had virtually no long-term impact on the financial well-being of recipients, and in some cases it amplified feelings of economic distress surrounding money, Bloomberg reports, citing a new...

The U.S. economy has experienced 12 recessions since World War II, and each one included two features: Economic output contracted and unemployment rose. Today, something highly unusual is happening. Economic output fell in the first quarter and signs suggest it did so again in the second. Yet the...

More than a third of high-earning American workers feel strapped for cash — a share that has risen dramatically in recent years. Thirty-six percent of U.S. employees with salaries of $100,000 or more are living paycheck to paycheck — twice as many who said they were in 2019, according...

The Federal Reserve’s bid to contain the hottest inflation in decades will end in a recession. That’s the message the bond market is telegraphing.

• Cherry Creek Mortgage: "Mortgage Credit News by Louis S Barnes"
• Bloomberg: "Wall Street’s Favorite Recession Signal Is...

In the latest monthly performance review note from Deutsche Bank, strategist Henry Allen writes that after a very poor start to the year, May marked the first time so far in 2022 that a majority of the non-currency assets in the bank's main sample were in positive territory (if not by much).

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Pools, restaurants and camps cut operations even though demand is back. Labor costs are higher and so are prices. ‘What, no one is applying?’

• Oaktree: "Bull Market Rhymes"
• Seeking Alpha: "White House Nears Decision on Forgiving $10K in Student Debt per Borrower"
• The...

Before the pandemic, Dani Gantcher earned about $15 an hour babysitting in her hometown of Scarsdale, N.Y. Parents sometimes asked her to wash dishes or stay late. Now, the 18-year-old is raking in $25 to $30 an hour. Moms and dads are asking a lot less from her. And they treat her like a VIP.

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Americans continue to feel the sting of inflation. Consumer prices rose 8.3% in April from a year ago. As a result, U.S. households are spending an additional $341 a month to purchase the same goods and services compared to a year ago due to inflation above typical inflation of 2%, according to...

Millions of older Americans stopped working during the pandemic, far more than usual, stoking fears that the workforce had been permanently altered, but the country is close to closing the gap in early retirements, according to new data.

• Zero Hedge: "Janet Yellen Admits Biden's Spending "Did...

Japanese institutional managers -- known for their legendary U.S. debt buying sprees in recent decades -- are now fueling the great bond selloff just as the Federal Reserve pares its $9 trillion balance sheet.

• Open Insights: "The Energy Shortage is About to Get Bad . . ."
• The Strategic...

Soaring fertilizer costs have rice farmers across Asia scaling back their use, a move that threatens harvests of a staple that feeds half of humanity and could lead to a full-blown food crisis if prices aren’t curbed.

• Bloomberg: "Rising Fertilizer Costs are Catching up to Rice...

“Globalization is not something we can hold off or turn off,” former President Bill Clinton told an audience in Vietnam in 2000. “It is the economic equivalent of a force of nature—like wind or water.”

• The Wall Street Journal: "Globalization Isn’t...